10 things I'm absolutely overreacting to after Week 4 in the Pac-12
There is officially a glut at the top of the Pac-12.
After USC’s semi-scare against Arizona State in terrible Tempe, the Trojans rightfully dropped in the rankings. But 3 spots to No. 8? That hurts.
And it also sends them below No. 7 Washington in the rankings, and just ahead of No. 9 Oregon and No. 10 Utah.
Given the lackluster performance, USC leads off the 10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after Week 4 in the Pac-12 …
10. USC can’t afford wins like that and expect to get the benefit of the doubt
College football is an image game (just ask Deion Sanders, but more on that later), and the Trojans earned few style points this week, both on the field and off.
First, Lincoln Riley embarrassed himself by first suspending and then un-suspending Orange County Register beat writer Luca Evans for myriad ticky-tack violations.
Then the Trojans were once against nearly done in by the desert heat, even at night. And speaking of heat, the heat is on USC to look flawless every game. And they just … don’t.
In a 42-28 win over the Sun Devils, the Trojans allowed 5 scores (3 touchdowns and 2 field goals) to a team that was shut out, 29-0, last Saturday by Fresno State. Cameron Skattebo looked like a star piling up 190 yards for ASU, and Drew Pyne was passable. It wasn’t altogether awful, but USC is being judged harshly, as evidenced by their ranking.
I’m getting worried about this team again. They’ve got 2 games to get right — at Colorado and at home against Arizona — before things get crazy. Notre Dame and Utah followed by Cal, and then Washington, Oregon and UCLA?
The Trojans can’t play like they did Saturday and expect to emerge from that unscathed.
9. Utah can’t afford to be without Cam Rising another week
Rising’s will-he, won’t-he is wearing thin, but we can’t blame him for dressing out, going through warmups, then switching into street clothes before Utah’s 14-7 win over UCLA on Saturday. If Kyle Whittingham wants to use him as a diversion, so be it.
But we officially learned the Utes’ limitations on Saturday under Nate Johnson, who was flummoxed by the talented Bruins defense all game. If not for a brilliant effort by the Utah D, including a tide-shifting, quick, pick-6 off Dante Moore on UCLA’s first offensive play.
Even missing several high impact starters, Utah’s defense is a championship defense. Even with Rising, I’m not so sure this is anywhere close to a championship offense. Granted, the Utes have been vanilla in their scheme and play-calling, but this is not an offense that scares you.
Get Rising back and tight end Brant Kuithe, and maybe that changes. But I’m not banking on it.
8. Michael Penix Jr. is now the Heisman favorite … for a reason
If I were a betting man (which I am), I’d put money on Penix taking home the Heisman? Why? Penix is pure money.
He was thrilling once more in a 59-32 win over the Bears, completing 19-of-25 passes for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns with 1 interception. With Jalen McMillan sidelined with injury, Ja’Lynn Polk and Rome Odunze picked up the slack, racking up 127 yards and 125 yards, respectively, while both had 2 touchdown receptions.
Penix stays on fire, as he took the national lead in touchdown passes with 16 and increased his lead in passing yardage.
But it’s more than stats. Watching how Penix is playing, you just know.
He ranks 2nd in passer rating behind Caleb Williams, but he’s played better competition, and, frankly, he’s looked better.
7. … But Jonah Elliss has been Pac-12 MVP so far
The son of an Utah football legend, defensive tackle Luther Elliss, Jonah Elliss might have a chance to match one of his biggest achievements. Pops was a consensus All-American in 1994, and 30 seasons later, his son may join him.
Elliss The Younger had a truly game-changing performance against UCLA on Saturday, finishing with 10 tackles including 5 solo, 5 tackles-for-loss and 3.5 sacks. He made the Bruins’ offensive line look like crash test dummies, and he did this despite the Utes lacking many of their familiar faces up front.
He now leads the country with 5.5 sacks and ranks tied for 4th nationally with 8.0 TFL.
If he keeps this up, he’s a shoo-in for conference defensive player of the year, and given his performance in a battered but 4-0 Utah defense, he’s been the most important player important to his team so far.
6. Oregon proved nothing on Saturday against the Buffaloes
I’m not sure we learned one new thing watching Oregon’s thorough beatdown of Colorado at Autzen Stadium on Saturday. Beating down a Buffaloes squad minus Travis Hunter isn’t that much of an achievement.
We knew Bo Nix was Bo Nix, and he did Bo Nix things again, bursting the Buffaloes’ bubble with a 4-touchdown performance. We knew Troy Franklin was his favorite target, and he was again on Saturday, catching 2 touchdowns and easily crossing the 100-yard mark. We knew the Ducks’ defensive line would give Colorado’s pass protection fits.
Maybe the only thing I didn’t realize was just how petty and spiteful Dan Lanning is, because he seemed mighty perturbed by the attention coming to Colorado all week.
5. But Colorado proved what we knew all along
I’m not so sure all that attention was good for the Buffaloes. We want teams to push through the doubt and the naysayers and to chase their dreams and fortunes, but Colorado had to know this was coming on Saturday against a vastly more talented Ducks squad.
The Buffaloes do not have the offensive line to contend with the conference’s elite teams, many of whom who happen to be among the country’s elite, as well.
I do love that Deion Sanders accepted and appreciated the butt-whooping his team got on Saturday. That’s a character-building exercise, as the Buffaloes just about played the Ducks to a draw in the second half. Minus Shedeur Sanders running for his life.
The loss, and Sanders rough stat line, does knock him from any Heisman conversation, though.
4. Cameron Ward is the dark-horse Heisman candidate
One Pac-12 quarterback fairly out, one fairly in.
Have we been sleeping on Cam Ward all along? I certainly have. His pedestrian season last year, his first as Cougars starter; the loss of several key pass-catchers; a retooled offense under a new coordinator — all that caused doubt in my head that Ward would be any more than a 2nd-tier Pac-12 quarterback and that the Cougars would be any more than a 7-win team.
But after a brilliant showing in the Pac-2 title game, when he completed 28-of-34 passes for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns, it’s time to through out all expectations. Ward now has 2 ranked wins, 13 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
If Penix and Williams fade and Bo Nix fails to capitalize, the Heisman is going to go through the Apple State.
3. The Pac-2 put on a show deserving of an audience
You want big plays? OK, how about 63 yards for a touchdown on the 2nd offensive play of the game? How about 400 passing yards by one guy?
You want drama? OK, how about Oregon State falling behind, 21-7 and then 35-14 before coming back to make it a 3-point final margin.
You want intrigue? How about all of that happening in a the first matchup between ranked Cougars and Beavers teams, all the while both teams have been left stranded by college football’s moneyed interests.
When all is said and done, the Pac-2 title game night to down as one of the best games in the country this season.
2. UCLA needs to go back to the drawing board during its bye week
If I’m overreacting to one team this week, it’s UCLA. I was all in on the Bruins upsetting the Utes in Salt Lake City, but they mockery of an offensive performance severely limited my optimism going forward.
You can chalk it up to one bad day, and yes, freshmen are allowed bad days. But that offensive line has some real holes, and Chip Kelly and the play-calling did the Bruins few favors. UCLA was conservative to a fault; instead of keeping in extra blockers but still being creative, the Bruins were tentative and predictable.
UCLA has a cupcake schedule, but it won’t matter much if they don’t wake up in a hurry.
1. Oregon State can reset expectations with a win over Utah in Week 5, but not too high
Jonathan Smith had to feel like he drank some sour milk yesterday with every DJ Uiagalelei pass attempt that hit the turf against Wazzu. And there were plenty, witnesses the Beavers starter completing just 17-of-34 pass attempts.
Is it that much of an overreaction to think we’ve seen the best of DJU…and it’s not all that good? Has Oregon State’s passing game looked improved this year? Absolutely. Are they a top 10 team? No, unfortunately.
You’ve got to love the Beavers. You’ve got to live Jonathan Smith. But Oregon State is a clear notch below the nation’s best teams.
What’s a surprise is Washington State might not be.