Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Oregon State to roll this weekend against Cal.

The predictive model is calling for a 33-19 win over the Golden Bears for coach Jonathan Smith and his 15th-ranked Beavers. It gives Cal a 21% chance of pulling the upset in Berkeley.

Fourteen points in a normal setting might not feel like a blowout, but with this Oregon State team, 14 points is a chasm.

Last Friday, the Beavs sent a top-10 Utah team home with a 21-7 loss after barely registering a whimper in Corvallis. Sure, the injury issues on Utah’s offense specifically hurt the Utes’ chances, but Oregon State manhandled the Utes at the point of attack. It was the worst offensive day for the Utah program since the 2018 Pac-12 title game.

Against a Cal team that comes in with offensive issues of its own, another dominant display could be in store.

The Bears scored 58 in their opener.

They managed just 10 the following week in a home loss to Auburn. They trailed Idaho 17-0 in the second quarter a week later. They trailed Washington 45-12 at halftime in the Pac-12 opener. Last week, they held on to beat Arizona State 24-21 after being turned away from the 1-yard-line with under three minutes on the clock.

Cal’s ground game has been its saving grace, with Jaydn Ott up to 471 yards on the year and coming off a 167-yard day against the Sun Devils.

He’s second in the Pac-12 in rushing, trailing only Oregon State’s Damien Martinez.

And the Beavs will provide his toughest test yet. Oregon State ranks fourth nationally in run efficiency defense, yielding 2.3 yards a carry to opposing teams this year. Utah’s always-lethal ground game averaged only 1.8 yards a carry last Friday.

If Cal can’t find a way to beat Oregon State on the ground, it could be a long day.

Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. PT on the Pac-12 Network.