Bill Connelly’s SP+ thinks Saturday’s Pac-2 matchup between No. 14 Oregon State and No. 21 Washington State will be a good one.

The predictive model is calling for a 29-24 Beaver victory in Pullman. It gives the Cougars a 41% chance of winning at home.

The Cougars’ start has mostly flown under the radar on account of the depth of talented teams in the Pac-12. With the Deion Sanders-led Colorado Buffaloes absorbing so much of the oxygen, there’s only so much to go around.

But Wazzu has been impressive through three weeks. Led by a drastically more efficient Cam Ward at quarterback, the Cougs are coming off a 64-point pasting of Northern Colorado in Week 3.

They’ve topped 50 twice already, and have a top-25 victory over Wisconsin in Week 2.

Ward is sixth nationally in passing with 990 yards and nine scores in three games. He has yet to throw an interception and is completing 72% of his passes. Against the Beavers, he’ll face his toughest test yet, though.

Oregon State takes away the run. They’re ninth nationally in run defense through three weeks, giving up just 2.04 yards per carry. And forcing teams to play one-dimensional has allowed the talent to win out against overmatched opponents. The Beavs are 13th nationally in defensive efficiency (4.1 yards per play).

Kickoff between the two unbeaten teams is set for 4 p.m. PT on FOX.