Entering the day on Thursday, Oregon was sitting squarely in the “First Four Out” category for Joe Lunardi’s NCAA Tournament projections. He said a week ago that for the Ducks to make the postseason tourney, they’d need to split games against USC and UCLA, then sweep the Washington schools.

Oregon got a win over UCLA, but then lost by one point to USC. On Thursday night, their tournament hopes probably flat-lined, barring something drastic in the conference tournament. Oregon lost to Washington 78-67, and Friday morning Lunardi dropped the Ducks into the “Next Four Out” category of his bubble projections, teetering on falling off altogether.

The Ducks (18-12, 11-8) also slipped behind Colorado to No. 5 in the conference standings, meaning an automatic bid to the tournament would need to come from a four-wins-in-four-days run through the field in Vegas.

With the Ducks falling nearly falling off the bubble, it’s looking like the Pac-12 will get just three into the Field of 68—Arizona (a 1-seed for Lunardi), UCLA (4-seed), and USC (7-seed).

Oregon plays Washington State on Saturday at 1 p.m. PT.