Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes the Ducks to cover a massive spread on Saturday.

Oregon is a 38.5-point over Hawaii in their Week 3 contest. Connelly’s predictive model has the Ducks winning 50-9.

The 13th-ranked Ducks are 2-0 against the spread so far this year, and they went 8-4 against the spread in the regular season during Dan Lanning’s first year at the helm. They’re also 3-0 under Lanning as a 20-plus-point favorite.

Last week, Oregon survived an upset bid from Texas Tech on the road. The Red Raiders were a tough out at home in 2022, and that environment proved equally as challenging in Week 2. The Ducks had to work for it, but they made crucial plays in the fourth quarter to pull off a comeback and outscore Tech 20-3 in the final frame.

This week projects as a different kind of challenge.

Oregon hosts No. 18 Colorado in a week. The Rainbow Warriors opened their season with back-to-back losses to FBS teams before beating Albany 31-20 in Week 2. If there’s any looking ahead, Hawaii and quarterback Brayden Schager could make things interesting at the start.

Schager leads the country in pass yardage (972) and ranks third nationally in attempts per game (42.7). Despite a top-35 pass defense for Oregon, the Rainbow Warriors are going to throw the football all around the yard and try to find a crack in the armor.

Kickoff on Saturday is set for 5 p.m. PT on the Pac-12 Network.