Oregon hosts Stanford Saturday evening for a new chapter in what has been one of the most entertaining rivalries in the country over the years. The last 12 meetings have been split right down the middle — six Oregon wins, six Stanford wins. The Cardinal shocked then-No. 3 Oregon in overtime a year ago. Stanford has consistently been a thorn in the side of excellent Oregon teams.

“This is the test we’ve been waiting for,” said UO defensive lineman Brandon Dorlus this week. “So I’m excited for this opportunity.”

And Oregon should pass with flying colors.

That’s according to Bill Connelly’s SP+ model, which is predicting a 41-22 win for the Ducks.

Connelly’s predictive model has picked the Ducks to win outright in each of the last four weeks (including this week’s game).

The Ducks have won three straight since that season-opening loss to Georgia, and they’ve won in different ways each time out. Oregon obliterated Eastern Washington at home with an efficient, quick-strike offense. Then it ran all over BYU. Last week against Washington State, quarterback Bo Nix led a fourth-quarter comeback and put forth a career-best passing effort.

What will things look like against Stanford? The Cardinal are 1-2 on the season with back-to-back conference losses at the hands of USC and Washington. Neither game was particularly close, and Stanford’s offense officially ruled out one of its top playmakers for the season this week with the announcement running back EJ Smith would miss the rest of the year.

Here’s what Connelly wrote on the game:

I also think Oregon is a lot better than Stanford. That, and SP+ has been more accurate on Stanford games than for any other team and gives Oregon an advantage of closer to 19 points. The line has moved up from Oregon -15, and going past 17 would make me nervous, but 17 or lower feels good.

Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. PT on FS1.