It’s game week for Oregon. The Ducks will hit the field one final time in 2022 on Wednesday when they face North Carolina in San Diego at the Holiday Bowl.

Points are expected. The game will feature two of the most productive quarterbacks in the country this season — Bo Nix on Oregon’s sideline and Drake Maye on North Carolina’s. With transfer portal entries, NFL Draft declarations, and opt-outs all over, defense could be at a premium.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ model still likes the Ducks.

Thanks to an offense that currently ranks fifth nationally in SP+, Connelly’s model has Oregon beating North Carolina 44-30 on Wednesday. It gives the Ducks a 79% chance of winning.

It could be a mental test just as much as a physical one on both sides of the football.

The Ducks finished off the regular season with losses in two of their final three games, dramatic defeats to both Washington and Oregon State to take themselves out of contention for the Pac-12 title. Oregon will also be operating under a different offensive play-caller for the game after Kenny Dillingham left for Arizona State

The Tar Heels dropped each of their final three games — Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, and Clemson — to close out the regular season unranked. UNC has also lost 10 defenders to the transfer portal, including six defensive backs and both of its starting corners.

This will be the first-ever meeting between the two programs. The Ducks (9-3, 7-2 Pac-12) will be playing in a sixth consecutive bowl game, but looking for their first postseason win since 2019. The Tar Heels (9-4, 6-2 ACC) are coming off a 39-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.

The game is set for a 5 p.m. PT kickoff on ESPN on Wednesday, Dec. 28.