Bill Connelly’s SP+ predicts a rolling Oregon victory this weekend in Tempe.

The predictive model is calling for a 43-14 win over Arizona State for the sixth-ranked Ducks. It gives ASU just a 5% chance of pulling off an upset at home.

Here’s what Connelly wrote about the game in his Week 12 preview:

Oregon has lost its past two trips to Tempe (2017 and 2019), but neither of those Oregon teams could compete with this Oregon team. ASU remains dreadfully inconsistent but allowed just 15 points to Washington and seven to UCLA within the past month. Turnovers could make this a tricky game, but I’m not sure anything else would.

Oregon (9-1, 6-1 Pac-12) is coming off a 36-27 win over USC. The Ducks will look to make it five in a row in what will be their final road trip of the regular season.

But standing in the way is former offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham. The Sun Devils (3-7, 2-5 Pac-12) have battled through a debilitating run of injuries this season that have forced the group to play somewhat gimmicky football.

But ASU played Washington tough a few weeks ago, beat Washington State, and beat UCLA at the Rose Bowl last weekend. A disastrous 55-3 loss at Utah was sandwiched in between there, but ASU lost its starting quarterback on the first drive of that game and had to move to the No. 4 option at the position.

Trenton Bourguet returned last week to lead the win over UCLA and he’s expected to start again against the Ducks.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. PT on FOX.