Bill Connelly’s SP+ model likes the Ducks to keep on rolling in Week 10.

No. 6 Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Pac-12) welcomes Justin Wilcox and Cal (3-5, 1-4 Pac-12) to Autzen Stadium on Saturday as it looks to keep the march to a Pac-12 title on schedule. Oregon has one loss on the year — on Oct. 14 against Washington — and it has blown the doors off everyone else.

Connelly’s predictive model sees that trend continuing. It picks Oregon to win 43-17. Cal has just a 6% chance of pulling the upset.

Oregon beat the Bears 42-24 in Berkeley last fall. In fact, Oregon has won 12 of the last 14 games in this series. But Cal has given Oregon fits.

And coach Dan Lanning said earlier this week that this Cal team is much improved from the one that went 4-8 last year.

“They’re not remotely the same team we’ve played in the past,” Lanning said on Monday. “These guys are scoring a lot of points. They’re extremely efficient. I think they’re playing some of their best ball, especially offensively, here toward this point of the season. They’ve found a rhythm and they’ve settled in at quarterback.”

It took Cal three tries before it settled on Fernando Mendoza at quarterback, but the results have been excellent since. The Bears scored 40 points in a near-upset of Oregon State on Oct. 7, and then scored 49 on another near-upset of USC last weekend.

Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. PT on the Pac-12 Network.