Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric system dolled out its pick for the matchup between Washington State and Oregon this weekend, with the Ducks projected to come out on top by a score of 37-21.

The predictive model gives Washington State just an 18% chance of pulling off the upset at Autzen Stadium, where the Ducks are favored by 20.

Both of these teams are fresh off of disappointing losses and are in search of bounce-back victories.

Oregon narrowly fell to rival Washington in a top-10 clash in Seattle last week. The Ducks held a 33-29 advantage late in the fourth quarter, but the Huskies stopped Bo Nix and Co. on fourth down as they tried to ice the game and scored a go-ahead touchdown on the ensuing drive.

Oregon still has all of its goals in front of it for the season, but the margin for error has diminished following the loss.

Washington State was one of the surprise teams in the Pac-12 early on, having taken down Wisconsin and Oregon State on its way to a 4-0 start. Then, the Cougars were humbled by UCLA at the Rose Bowl in a 25-17 affair.

Wazzu returned home for what figured to be a pivotal game against Arizona, but the Wildcats closed the game with 44 unanswered points after WSU scored the first touchdown of the game and claimed a stunning road victory. Cameron Ward and the usually potent Washington State offense struggled in the loss and will be looking to get back on track in Eugene.

The matchup between the Cougars and Ducks can be seen at 12:30 PT on ABC.