Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Oregon to win by double-digits on Saturday.

The sixth-ranked Ducks welcome the reeling USC Trojans to Autzen Stadium for a Week 11 matchup that carries significant weight in the Pac-12 title race. USC can re-establish itself as a contender with a win. Conversely, Oregon can knock USC out of the picture entirely.

Connelly’s predictive model is calling for a 41-28 Oregon victory. It gives USC a 23% chance of pulling the upset.

Here’s what Connelly wrote on the game in his Week 11 preview:

It’s grown difficult over time to come up with anything new to say about USC. “The Trojans are going to do delightful things on offense,” “Caleb Williams is going to throw for lots of yards” and “the dismal Trojans defense is going to either make the game far closer than it should be (if the opponent isn’t very good) or lose it entirely.” That doesn’t describe all 24 of Lincoln Riley’s games in charge, but it comes relatively close.

There are two variations with this one, however. First, USC’s playing an increasingly brilliant Oregon team that has won six games by more than four touchdowns. If Johnson can rush for 256 yards on the Trojans, what might Bucky Irving and one of the best run games in college football do?

Oregon coach Dan Lanning was highly complimentary of the USC offense earlier this week, but the game will largely be decided on what happens when the other two units are on the field.

Can USC’s defense — which surrendered a career-high 256 yards and four touchdowns to UW running back Dillon Johnson last week and then saw its coordinator dismissed — show a pulse against Oregon? The Ducks’ run game is the best in the country, averaging more than 6 yards per carry.

The offensive line has once again been a strength for Oregon, which is among the nation’s best teams by net per-play efficiency. USC has struggled all year between periods of good play good enough to make it look like a contender and bad play so dreadful it makes USC tough to watch.

Kickoff between the Ducks (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12) and Trojans (7-3, 5-1 Pac-12) is set for 7:30 p.m. PT on FOX.