ESPN's FPI predicts the remaining games on Oregon's schedule
Oregon arrives at its bye week with a 5-1 record and an unblemished mark in the Pac-12.
The Ducks suffered a Week 1 loss to Georgia in blowout fashion, but they’ve rebounded about as well as could be hoped for in the weeks since. They’ve won five straight. They’ve scored at least 40 points in five straight. And they’ve set themselves up well to make a charge at a fourth consecutive Pac-12 title game when they come out of their bye week this weekend.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Oregon is favored in every game the rest of the way.
Here’s how FPI is projecting the rest of the Ducks’ schedule, along with what the model was predicting back in the preseason:
- Oct. 22 vs. UCLA — 71.6% chance to win (preseason: 69.9%)
- Oct. 29 at Cal — 76.7% chance to win (preseason: 73.5%)
- Nov. 5 at Colorado — 95.6% chance to win (preseason: 78.2%)
- Nov. 12 vs. Washington — 70.5% chance to win (preseason: 73.7%)
- Nov. 19 vs. Utah — 51% chance to win (preseason: 52.4%)
- Nov. 26 at Oregon State — 68% chance to win (preseason: 68.1%)
FPI has the Ducks’ predicted record at 10-3, and gives them a 26.1% chance to win the Pac-12 — the second-best mark of any team in the Pac-12. Oregon also has a 4.1% chance of making it to the College Football Playoff, according to FPI.
It’s notable that Oregon’s chance of beating UCLA has actually risen since the beginning of the season. The Bruins sit just 30th nationally in the updated FPI standings for the week. They moved up one spot for beating Utah on Saturday, which surprisingly remains a top-10 team (and ahead of USC) in the power metric despite having two losses already.
Oregon sits at No. 14. It moved up eight spots after dominating Arizona on the road.