If you follow recruiting, you know that Oregon has been in a class of its own on the West Coast for years now.

And if you know that, Wednesday’s annual blue-chip ratio reveal from 247Sports’ Bud Elliott offered little in the way of surprises. The top 15 teams in Elliotts’ roster calculus are deemed to be the teams with an actual shot at winning a national championship. With a 60% blue-chip ratio, Oregon is one of those 15 teams.

Elliott’s model looks at the number of 4- and 5-star recruits (using the 247 Composite) signed by teams over the last four recruiting classes compared to the number of 2- and 3-stars signed. Walk-ons aren’t included. Transfer ratings are also not included, with Elliott citing more data is needed to know how to appropriately incorporate transfers into the fold.

Notice the absence of USC above, a team that has typically landed in the upper tier of the 247Sports talent composite. The Trojans built through the transfer portal in Lincoln Riley’s first offseason. As Elliott writes, “through two years of heavy transfer portal activity, national titles are not being won through the portal. Teams loading up on transfers are frequently coaches looking for a jumpstart to a new tenure, or, on the other end, looking for a fix to save their jobs.”

To put Oregon’s 60% number into context, Elliott has historical data for each of the last 11 national champions:

  • 2011: Alabama, 71%
  • 2012: Alabama 71%
  • 2013: Florida State, 53%
  • 2014: Ohio State, 68%
  • 2015: Alabama, 77%
  • 2016: Clemson, 52%
  • 2017: Alabama, 80%
  • 2018: Clemson, 61%
  • 2019: LSU, 64%
  • 2020: Alabama, 83%
  • 2021: Georgia, 80%

Seeing Alabama’s historical numbers and then seeing what their 2022 BCR score looks like really puts to shame Nick Saban’s public lamenting over “competitive imbalance” in college football. Based on just the above, expecting a team with a 77-89% blue-chip rate to win the 2022 national championship feels like a safe bet.

But Oregon is in the conversation, according to Elliott. And the Ducks will have a chance to prove they belong when they open the season in Atlanta on Sept. 3 against the Bulldogs.