If Arizona wants to make a bowl game, it can’t take another loss. That margin is gone after four straight losses. And if No. 12 UCLA wants to stay in the hunt for the Pac-12 championship and keep otherwise slim College Football Playoff hopes alive, it can’t get caught looking ahead. The Bruins host USC next Saturday. Arizona would love nothing more than to take that next step as a program and pull an upset.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ doesn’t see it happening, though. Not this time. The Wildcats are improved this year, no doubt. SP+ really likes the Bruins, though.

The predictive model sees UCLA winning it 49-21. It gives the Bruins a 94% chance of topping the Wildcats.

Connelly had this to say on the matchup:

It’s pretty clear at this point: The CFP committee hated UCLA’s nonconference schedule and has kept its ranking tamped down accordingly. The Bruins are therefore in need of some style points. SP+ ranks them ninth overall and thinks they’re capable of a huge win here, but Arizona remains sporadically feisty.

“Sporadically feisty” feels more than appropriate. Arizona has gone back and forth between brilliance and frustration. The Wildcats are among college football’s most explosive teams, buoyed by a receiving corps that features as talented a trio of wideouts as any in America.

Their defense also ranks 128th nationally in both scoring (allowing 38 points a game) and yards per play (allowing 6.9).

UCLA enters the contest with an offense that just ran for 400 yards on the Cats’ in-state rival without their leading rusher. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson went for 120 yards on the ground. Kaz Allen had 137 yards. Keegan Jones had 98 yards. None of the three got there on more than 12 carries.

Arizona has had to play from behind all season. UCLA has the potential to both jump out to an early lead and shorten the game.

But the Bruins were also almost caught a week ago, escaping Arizona State with a 50-36 win after the Sun Devils made things interesting late. We’ll see what Arizona can do Saturday. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. PT on FOX.