Bill Connelly’s SP+ has the Sooners pulling out an Alamo Bowl victory on Thursday.

No. 14 Arizona (9-3) takes to San Antonio to battle No. 12 Oklahoma (10-2) in the postseason. Few teams in the country have been hotter over the second half of the season than the Wildcats — who have won six straight entering the game — and Oklahoma was pushing for a College Football Playoff bid until back-to-back losses late in the year. It could be one of the most entertaining games on the postseason calendar.

Connelly’s predictive model has the Sooners winning 32-28. It gives Arizona a 40% chance to win the game.

The good-on-good battle will take place when Arizona has the football. The metronome-like Wildcat offense is sixth nationally in success rate. Arizona has the ability to bite off chunk plays, but it also doesn’t rely on them to move the football.

The Sooners rank 12th nationally in raw tackles for loss created. They have 88 in 12 games. But that defense has also given up 61 plays of at least 20 yards this season — 121st nationally. Can Arizona find success when Oklahoma seeks out splash plays? Throughout the six-game winning streak, quarterback Noah Fifita has been lethal.

Arizona will want to use this game to make a statement. On the other side, Oklahoma will be implementing a new offensive coordinator, a new play-caller, and a new quarterback.

The game is set to take place on Dec. 28 at 6:15 p.m. PT on ESPN.