The line at Vegas sportsbooks has slowly been creeping north of double-digits since it opened at just a touchdown.

Arizona hosts Mississippi State on Saturday at 8 p.m. PT on FS1. The Wildcats began their season with a massive 38-20 win over San Diego State on the road. The margin itself wasn’t as lopsided as others throughout the Pac-12, and the opponent wasn’t exactly a world-beater, but for a team that went 1-11 a year ago, a dominant opening-week victory surely provided a surge of confidence for a group out to prove itself.

The Mike Leach-led Bulldogs present a tougher test. And Bill Connelly’s SP+ sees a pretty resounding result.

The predictive model is calling for a 36-14 Mississippi State win, giving the Bulldogs a 90% chance of winning the game. That margin would easily clear the projected spread — 10.5, via FanDuel — but total would see the under hit for the game. FanDuel currently has the total set at 57.5.

Mississippi State won its opener over Memphis 49-23. That included a near-flawless performance from quarterback Will Rogers.

The Leach Air Raid is going to throw the ball all over the yard, but even with an inflated usage rate, Rogers’ line was impressive to open the season: 38-for-49 passing, 450 yards, five touchdowns.

The Wildcat secondary will need to be up to the challenge, but it did well in Week 1. San Diego State completed just seven of its 16 pass attempts for 62 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in the game.

“I know Mike Leach is always gonna have very good passers. There’s nothing really surprising in terms of the fact that he’s producing a 400-yard passer, that’s what he does,” coach Jedd Fisch said Monday. “They throw the ball a lot, and the key to be good in that offense is being accurate. And that’s what they look for, that’s what they found. And I’m sure it’ll be a great challenge for us.”