Arizona bounces back from a disappointing loss last week with a pretty telling win over North Dakota State.

That’s how Bill Connelly’s SP+ model sees the Wildcats’ Week 3 game going. Connelly’s model, built off of the game’s most influential statistical factors, has the Wildcats winning 27-22.

That would be quite the win for Arizona in Jedd Fisch’s second year at the helm. Not because it would double-up last year’s win total just three weeks into the year. North Dakota State is one of the most consistent football programs in the country. It wins with sound, fundamental football.

The Bison are 9-3 against FBS opponents in their history. In the last six, they have wins at Kansas (6-3), Minnesota (37-24), Colorado State (22-7), Kansas State (24-21), Iowa State (34-14), and 11th-ranked Iowa (23-21). They’ve also won 10 straight games across all contests, and enter Saturday’s matchup ranked No. 1 in the FCS coaches poll.

The Wildcats are 1-1 to open the year. They’ve looked good in a 38-20 road win over San Diego State to open the season, and they’ve looked rough in a 39-17 loss to Mississippi State at home this past Saturday.

Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. PT on FS1.