Editor’s note: Saturday Out West’s annual Crystal Ball prediction series will preview every team in the Pac-12. Today: Arizona State.

Already covered: Utah, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Oregon State, Washington State, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Arizona

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The Arizona State football team enters the 2022 season in a strange position.

In the wake of myriad recruiting allegations throughout the staff, 5 assistant coaches — defensive coordinator Antonio Pierce, offensive coordinator Zak Hill, tight ends coach Adam Breneman, wide receivers coach Prentice Gill and defensive backs coach Chris Hawkins — resigned or were fired. Seventeen players entered the transfer portal, to go along with 4 NFL Draft picks and 4 undrafted free agents.

College football is all about change, but this was a firesale.

Arizona State lost extensive talent that it wasn’t prepared to lose and, as a result, had to embark on a mad scramble to restock the ranks. To be sure, some major Sunday talent returns, but the depth is down and the spirit is sapped.

How do the Sun Devils respond?

That’s the big question. But there are a few others, as well …

Can Herm Edwards save his job?

Edwards’ 2021 coaching performance was downright masterful, considering the cloud that has been looming over the Arizona State program for months. To pull off an 8-5 record on a team with middling stats and above-average NFL talent says something.

But how long can Arizona State look the other way on what appears to be a failure to monitor a staff that has since been decimated by firings? The ASU roster suffered loss after loss to the transfer portal, and while the Sun Devils were able to somewhat retool, they’re definitely lacking depth and impact players in 2022.

If the record collapses like many project, the benefit of the doubt that Edwards has will go by the wayside.

Will Emory Jones perform like Jayden Daniels circa 2019 or Jayden Daniels circa 2021?

Just based off quarterback play, it is almost astounding that Arizona State finished with twin 8-5 records in 2019 and 2021.

With former Sun Devils quarterback Jayden Daniels at the helm both seasons, the ASU passing game fared drastically differently. At least Daniels himself did.

  • 2019: 205-of-338 passing for 2,943 yards, 17 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 149.2 rating
  • 2021: 197 of 301 passing for 2,380 yards, 10 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 136.2 rating

Yet ASU’s 2021 offense scored more points per game (28.4 points-24.8 points) and averaged more yards (386.0-372.1). Football is weird.

Now Daniels is off to LSU and Jones is in the driver’s seat. Will Jones be more like 2019 or 2021 Daniels? Will it matter? Maybe not.

How do the Sun Devils survive the loss of a ton of defensive production?

Arizona State returns just 55 percent of its defensive production from a year ago, ranking 119th in the country.

Darien Butler, gone. DeAndre Pierce, out. DJ Davidson? Eric Gentry? Bye, bye. Jack Jones and Tyler Johnson? See ya later. Six of ASU’s 8 top tacklers are gone.

Can Kyle Soelle and Merlin Robertson man the fort in their absence? It’ll be tough.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Northern Arizona (W)

The Sun Devils are 5-1 in their past 6 season-openers. They’ll move to 6-1 with a big win over the overmatched Lumberjacks.

Week 2: at Oklahoma State (L)

Coming off an 11-1 regular season, the Cowboys are ranked No. 12 to open the season, and this game is in Stillwater. Not exactly a winning combination for the Sun Devils. Granted, the only other time these teams met at OSU, back in 1991, Arizona State won 30-3. Can the Sun Devils pull off the big upset? Not with their defense, no.

Week 3: vs. Eastern Michigan (W)

ESPN’s FPI gives ASU a 90.5-9.5 advantage in this one, but I think it’ll be closer than expected. ASU should win, but it won’t be a blowout.

Week 4: vs. Utah (L)

ASU went undefeated in the first 4 years of this Pac-12 rivalry, and at one point won 11 in a row against Utah, but the Utes have won 4-of-6 and 2 straight. Even with the game returning to Tempe and the Sun Devils catching Utah early in conference play, ASU doesn’t have a chance.

Week 5: at USC (L)

Rachaad White steamrolled the Trojans last year, actually embarrassing a USC defense that used to have a little swagger. White gained 202 yards on 28 carries with 3 touchdowns in a 31-16 win, the biggest win in the series since 2017. The previous 3 matchups had been decided by a total of 9 points. With White off to the NFL and the Sun Devils reeling after a tumultuous offseason, I don’t think this one will be very close, either.

Only the Trojans will get the better end of it this time with Caleb Williams, Jordan Addison and Co.

Week 6: vs. Washington (L)

Without White against the Huskies this year, plenty will fall into the hands of former Wyoming running back Xazavian Valladay. White had 184 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns and 53 receiving yards in a 35-30 Sun Devils win.

This time, with Washington bringing in a more talented defense and the Sun Devils losing so much defensive talent, the Huskies win.

Week 7: Bye

Week 8: at Stanford (L)

This matchup pits teams with vastly different levels of returning production, as Stanford brings back a ton of production on both sides — 88 percent of returning offense and 70 percent of returning defense — while ASU returns just 57 total percent of its production. One of Stanford’s returning star players, quarterback Tanner McKee, had a rocky performance in last year’s game. In Arizona State’s 28-10 win, McKee had 356 yards but was picked off 3 times and sacked 5 times.

This year, despite coming off a difficult 6-week stretch, the Cardinal will get back into the win column against the Sun Devils.

Week 9: at Colorado (W)

The Buffaloes and Sun Devils have been remarkably close over the past 5 years, with Colorado going 3-2 with a 1-point overall advantage 145-144.

Arizona State’s defense stifled Colorado quarterback Brendon Lewis in a 35-13 win last year to the tune of 7-of-17 passing for 67 yards. Neither team improved in the offseason, so I expect the Sun Devils to hold serve.

Week 10: vs. UCLA (L)

It’s been a close rivalry in recent years as the teams have split the past 8 games.

Last year, Arizona State’s passing game thrived against the Bruins’ horrendous air defense as Jayden Daniels threw for 286 yards and 2 touchdowns, both to Ricky Pearsall.

With defensive coordinator Bill McGovern there to change UCLA’s scheme and game plans, the Bruins finally get a sense of its defensive improvement. If the Bruins can stifle Jones, they’re going to be fighting d be headed to a 10-win season. That’s a lot of motivation.

Week 11: at Washington State (W)

The way last year’s game went — Arizona State committed five turnovers in a 34-21 loss — probably won’t be repeated. Washington State and Arizona State both lost ample players, and depth is an issue for both squads.

This late in the season, I expect Arizona State’s decent defense to be healthy than Wazzu’s hobbled offensive line, which has already had some nicks and bruises early in the season. As much as I like new Cougars quarterback Cameron Ward, ASU will get its revenge for its 4th win of the year, keeping bowl eligibility still a possibility.

Week 12: vs. Oregon State (L)

ESPN’s FPI heavily favors the Sun Devils, as does history. Arizona State has won 30-of-45 matchups against the Beavers, including 15 out of 16 games at one point. The other game in that stretch was a tie.

But things have evened out over the years, and Oregon State has now won 9-of-17 games in the rivalry, including 2 of the past 3. Last season in late-November, OSU won 24-10 in Corvallis. Although this matchup returns to Tempe, I’ve still got the Beavers coming out on top.

Week 13: at Arizona (L)

There have been times in this topsy-turvy rivalry when the inexplicable happened. But it’s been downright boring in the past half-decade. Arizona State is riding a 5-game winning streak in the Territorial Cup with a combined margin of 215-106. With the Wildcats in a state of flux in the post-RichRod era, ASU has capitalized on the field and on the recruiting trail.

The momentum is definitely flipping, though. The Sun Devils are uncertain about the impending hammer that may come down on them while Arizona believes it has bottomed out — and, yeah, a 20-game losing streak will make you feel that way. The Wildcats are riding the momentum of a successful offseason, but by late-November, it’ll feel like an entire season later.

2022 Projection: 4-8 (2-7)

#ForksUp

No team in the Pac-12 has a spotlight on it quite as glaring as the Sun Devils do. Or maybe it’s just Herm Edwards. Either way, Arizona State is not going to just sneak under the radar of so many recruiting violations.

Can the ASU players rise above the muck to deliver even when the head coach is getting questioned left and right? Edwards’ hot-seat status could either rally the Sun Devils behind him, or make for a truly awkward campaign.

After going 8-5 last year, the awkwardness will set in. A crash is coming.